Prediction of FIVB Volleyball World Cup 2019 (Women)

Prediction of FIVB Volleyball World Cup 2019 (Women) | konakalab

This article describes a prediction of FIVB Volleyball World Cup 2019 (Women).

Prediction method

The prediction method used here is disclosed in our academic papers.

E. Konaka, "A Unified Statistical Rating Method for Team Ball Games and Its Application to Predictions in the Olympic Games" in IEICE Transactions on Information Systems.
E. Konaka, "A quantitative method for evaluating the skills of national volleyball teams: Prediction accuracy comparisons of the official ranking system in the worldwide tournaments of 2010s." in the proceedings of the Mathsport 2019 conference, pp.202-216

This prediction using 881 international matches in the last two years including VNL, continental championships, and World Championship 2018.

Team rating

The figure below shows the team rating value. USA has the highest rating value. Japan, the host nation, ranked 6th in the participating 12 teams.
Win probability is calculated as p=1/(1+exp(-dR)), where dR denotes the difference of rating values between two teams. For example, if USA (rating:7.26) matches Japan (rating:6.07=5.70+0.37(home advantage)), the predicted win probability of USA is 1/(1+exp(-7.26+6.07))=0.77.

Prediction

The predicted win probability is shown by team in alphabetical order. The opponent is sored in the scheduled order.

小中研究室